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Home » BofA » 'It's A Matter Of Time' For EUR Bears: Forecasts & Risks - BofA Merrill

'It's A Matter Of Time' For EUR Bears: Forecasts & Risks - BofA Merrill


The following are Bank of America Merrill Lynch's atest comprehensive outlook for the EUR including its forecasts , and risks:
Forecasts: it's a matter of time.
We remain Euro bearish , expecting EURUSD at 1.31 by the end of Q1 and 1.25 by the end of 2014. However , we see some upside risks to our projection in the short-term , taking into account how the Euro has traded so far in the year. For the Euro to weaken , we need to see a slowing of equity flows , an ECB signal for further easing to address deflation risks and/or a more sustained improvement in US data. We believe that at least two of these developments will take place in the first half of the year , allowing the Euro to break out from its current range.
Risks: balanced risks:
Upside EUR risks include further weakness in the US labor market , an increase of Eurozone inflation well above 1% , and a decision by central bank reserve managers to increase their share of Euros to pre-crisis levels. Downside Euro risks include a further drop in Eurozone inflation , which would trigger ECB unconventional policies in our view , and inflation in the US if labor force participation continues declining at a fast pace as the economy recovers.
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